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During its tenure, Vietnam could block the progress of negotiations over establishing a maritime code of conduct in the South China Sea, which China has been advocating for, or it could bring legal action against China. Vietnam, one of the claimants to contested islands, has assumed the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2020. The opportunity to press claims without resorting to force could also diminish in the future should Southeast Asian nations become less accommodating of China’s position. Moreover, with expectations that the first stage of China’s military modernization efforts will be completed in 2020, Xi could become more confident that China would succeed in pressing its claims militarily, especially if the United States is distracted internally with managing the coronavirus pandemic or its aftermath. freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the area. China has already declared two new administrative districts in the South China Sea in April 2020 and has escalated its criticism of U.S. With China’s economic growth for 2020 projected to hit only 1.2 percent-the lowest since the mid-1970s-Xi could find it necessary to demonstrate strength while Beijing deals with internal fallout from the pandemic. Xi could feel compelled to accelerate his timeline in the South China Sea to maintain his consolidated position within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly if the political situation in Hong Kong worsens, peaceful reunification with Taiwan becomes less likely, or domestic criticism of his management of the novel coronavirus outbreak increases. Although China has been cautious in pressing its claims thus far, three developments could convince Xi that China should be more assertive.
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Exercising full sovereignty over this area is a core component of President Xi Jinping’s “China Dream.” China does not accept or respect the sovereignty claims of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Vietnam in this region. For these reasons, the United States should seek ways to prevent Chinese expansion, ideally while avoiding a dangerous confrontation and being prepared to deftly manage any crises should they arise.Ĭhina considers the majority of the South China Sea to be an inalienable part of its territory. National Security Strategy and the reason the Indo-Pacific is the U.S. Preventing China from doing so is the central objective of the U.S. China’s ability to control this waterway would be a significant step toward displacing the United States from the Indo-Pacific region, expanding its economic influence, and generally reordering the region in its favor. defense treaty obligations to at least one of the claimants to the contested territory, the Philippines. The United States is also at risk of being drawn into a military conflict with China in this region as a result of U.S.
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Maintaining free and open access to this waterway is not only important for economic reasons, but also to uphold the global norm of freedom of navigation. The United States has a strong interest in preventing China from asserting control over the South China Sea. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute Plausible changes to China’s domestic situation or to the international environment could create incentives for China’s leadership to adopt a more provocative strategy in the South China Sea that would increase the risk of a military confrontation.Īssistant Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University's Edmund A. It would be wrong to assume that China is satisfied with the gains it has made or that it would refrain from using more aggressive tactics in the future. Most recently, China announced the creation of two new municipal districts that govern the Paracel and Spratly Islands, an attempt to strengthen its claims in the South China Sea by projecting an image of administrative control. Since 2009, China has advanced its territorial claims in this region through a variety of tactics-such as reclaiming land, militarizing islands it controls, and using legal arguments and diplomatic influence-without triggering a serious confrontation with the United States or causing a regional backlash.
The risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months, particularly if their relationship continues to deteriorate as a result of ongoing trade frictions and recriminations over the novel coronavirus pandemic.
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